An Interpretation of “Made in China 2025”: Promoting the Development of Robotics

　　“Made in China 2025” stands at a new historical height, taking a strategic and holistic perspective to clearly set forth the action plan for the first decade of China’s strategy to become a manufacturing powerhouse. It identifies “high-end CNC machine tools and robots” as one of the key priority areas for vigorous promotion, stipulating that the development of the robotics industry should “focus on the needs of industrial robot applications in sectors such as automotive, machinery, electronics, hazardous-materials manufacturing, national defense and military-industrial complexes, chemicals, and light industry, as well as service-robot applications in healthcare, home services, education, and entertainment; actively develop new products; promote the standardization and modularization of robotics; expand market applications; and break through technological bottlenecks in core components—including robot bodies, reducers, servo motors, controllers, sensors, and drives—as well as in system integration design and manufacturing.” Furthermore, the Technology Innovation Roadmap for Key Areas specifies that the main priorities for the development of China’s robotics industry over the next decade will be twofold: first, to develop a series of standardized industrial robot bodies and key components, thereby advancing the industrialization and application of industrial robots to meet the urgent needs of China’s manufacturing sector for transformation and upgrading; and second, to achieve breakthroughs in critical technologies for intelligent robots, develop a portfolio of intelligent robots, and proactively address the challenges posed by the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation.

　　I. Be demand-driven, enhance innovation capabilities, and expand market applications.

　　Based on the application environment, the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) categorizes robots into two main types: industrial robots for manufacturing settings and service robots for non-manufacturing settings. Industrial robots refer collectively to robots used in industrial production and constitute critical factory automation equipment in modern manufacturing. Service robots, by contrast, are non-production robots designed to serve human needs; their technology is primarily deployed in unstructured environments characterized by complex and variable conditions. These robots rely on onboard sensors and communication systems to acquire information about their external surroundings, enabling them to make informed decisions and carry out specific operational tasks.

　　1. China has become the world’s largest industrial robot market, with significant untapped potential.

　　Industrial robots primarily refer to multi-joint manipulators or multi-degree-of-freedom robots designed for industrial applications, used in processes such as material handling, welding, assembly, machining, painting, and clean manufacturing. In 2014, global sales of industrial robots reached a record high of 225,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 27%. The primary driver of this market growth was the Asian region, particularly China and South Korea.

　　In recent years, China’s robotics market has grown rapidly and has become a major global hub for robotic applications. In 2014, industrial robot sales in China reached 56,000 units, up 52% year on year, reaffirming China’s position as the world’s largest industrial robot market. The customer base has expanded from primarily wholly foreign-owned enterprises and Sino-foreign joint ventures to include domestically owned firms—and even small and medium-sized enterprises. Many companies in China’s coastal, industrially advanced regions produce goods for export, where stringent quality standards prevail; consequently, an increasing number of firms are replacing manual labor with robotic systems. In the Pearl River Delta region, the annual average growth rate of industrial robot adoption has reached 30%, particularly in areas such as assembly, dispensing, material handling, and welding, sparking a widespread boom in robotic deployment.

　　Although China has been the world’s largest market for industrial robots since 2013, the density of industrial robots in manufacturing remains low: in 2013, China’s industrial robot density was only 30 units per 10,000 industrial workers—less than half the global average—and significantly lower than that of countries with highly advanced levels of industrial automation, such as South Korea (437 units per 10,000 industrial workers), Japan (323 units per 10,000 industrial workers), and Germany (282 units per 10,000 industrial workers). The domestic industrial robot market therefore still holds substantial untapped potential.

　　As a major manufacturing country, China has long lagged behind in the application of industrial robots. With the exception of the automotive industry, the widespread and large-scale general manufacturing sector has largely adopted robotic technologies in an ad hoc, fragmented, or sporadic manner. However, as factory automation continues to advance in China, industrial robots are poised for rapid adoption across other industrial sectors, including electronics, metal products, rubber and plastics, food, building materials, civil explosives, aerospace, and medical equipment.

　　The extent of industrial robot adoption is a key indicator of a country’s level of industrial automation. The development of industrial robots in China should be centered on accelerating the country’s smart manufacturing initiatives, fostering collaboration between robot suppliers and users. On the one hand, this involves enhancing the innovation capabilities of Chinese robot manufacturers, promoting standardization, modularity, and system integration, reducing operating costs, and elevating the level of integrated applications, thereby expanding the scope of market deployment. On the other hand, it calls for actively launching pilot projects for domestically branded robots, focusing on a number of exemplary demonstration projects that deliver outstanding results, exert strong spillover effects, and exhibit high levels of interconnectivity, so as to leverage these success stories to drive the broader adoption of industrial robots in modernizing and upgrading traditional manufacturing sectors.

　　2. China’s service robot industry should be demand-driven and develop in a prioritized manner.

　　Service robots encompass both specialized service robots and household service robots, with a broad range of applications. They are primarily used for maintenance and upkeep, repair, transportation, cleaning, security, rescue operations, patient monitoring, as well as medical care, elderly care, rehabilitation, and assistance for people with disabilities. As a new type of intelligent equipment and a strategic high-tech product, service robots are poised to capture an even larger market share in the future than industrial robots.

　　Global service robotics has experienced rapid growth over the past five years. According to statistics from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), in 2013 global sales of professional service robots and personal/household service robots reached 21,000 units and 4 million units, respectively, with market values of US$3.57 billion and US$1.7 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 4% and 28%, respectively. In the coming years, the global service robot market is expected to continue its rapid expansion. Driven by significant breakthroughs in cloud-based robotic technologies that enable mutual learning and knowledge sharing, as well as substantial reductions in production costs for small, household assistive robots, an emerging market worth at least US$41.6 billion is projected to take shape by 2020. Meanwhile, although disability-assistive robotics has started more slowly, it is anticipated to experience robust growth over the next two decades.

　　Currently, research and development in service robotics is predominantly led by five countries: the United States, Japan, China, Germany, and South Korea. In China, the development of service robots lags behind that of industrial robots; compared with Japan, the United States, and other advanced nations, China’s R&D efforts in the service-robot sector started later, and a substantial gap remains between China and these developed countries. However, relative to industrial robots, the domestic–international gap is comparatively smaller. Service robots are typically developed with specific market needs in mind, which enables local firms to better tailor their products to particular environments and cultural contexts, thereby securing a strong market position and maintaining a competitive edge. On the other hand, service robotics is still an emerging industry worldwide, with most companies having been established only relatively recently; as a result, China’s service-robot industry stands at the cusp of significant opportunities and considerable room for growth.

　　From a development trend perspective, China’s professional service robots are expected to achieve industrialization ahead of personal/household robots, particularly in areas such as medical robotics and inspection and exploration robots for hazardous and specialized environments. As China enters an aging society, demand for medical care, nursing, and rehabilitation is rising; at the same time, growing consumer aspirations for higher quality of life will further expand the market potential for personal/household robots in the future.

　　II. Breaking Through Technological Bottlenecks and Enhancing Industrialization Capabilities

　　Robots integrate advanced manufacturing technologies, cutting-edge materials science, and information-control systems, making them a flagship product of intelligent manufacturing. Their research and development, production, and application have become key indicators for assessing a nation’s level of scientific and technological innovation and its manufacturing capabilities, thereby attracting close attention from the world’s leading manufacturing powers.

　　The development of China’s robotics industry can be traced back to the 1980s, when the Ministry of Science and Technology included industrial robots in its key scientific and technological research program. The former Ministry of Machinery Industry took the lead in organizing research and development efforts on various models of industrial robots for spot welding, arc welding, painting, and material handling, while other ministries and commissions also actively approved and supported related projects, thus ushering in the first boom in China’s industrial robotics sector. Thereafter, primarily due to market demand, independent R&D and industrialization of robots experienced a prolonged period of stagnation. Since 2010, however, China’s installed robot capacity has increased year by year, marking the beginning of a comprehensive, full-industry-chain approach to robotics development.

　　The development of the robotics industry encompasses research and development testing, the industrialization of robot hardware and components, system integration technologies, and service provision—each link is critically important. The evolution of China’s robotics value chain is a long and arduous journey. Overall, most Chinese robotics firms today are concentrated in the system integration segment, with processing and assembly companies constituting the majority. In terms of original research on core and critical technologies, highly reliable foundational functional components, system-level process application solutions, and large-scale mass production of complete robots, China still lags considerably behind developed countries. With regard to key components, such as precision reducers, servo motors, and servo drives, substantial reliance on imports persists. Although the state has invested heavily in this area over many years, the initially small market scale and low level of industrialization have been insufficient to stimulate the development of core components, resulting in less-than-ideal outcomes.

　　It is thus evident that insufficient robotic technology capabilities in China have constrained the scale of industrialization, while the relatively small scale of the industry, in turn, has hindered technological advancement—both factors impeding the progress of robot industrialization. To enhance the market competitiveness of domestically produced robots, it is essential, on the one hand, to expand production volumes and increase the capacity of domestic robotics firms; and, on the other hand, to accelerate the localization of critical robot components, bolstering domestic manufacturing capabilities for these key parts to meet the demands of expanding domestic robot production capacity.

　　Over the past two years, the Chinese government has placed great emphasis on intelligent manufacturing and robotics. Multiple departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Science and Technology, have been vigorously promoting the development of the robotics industry by implementing initiatives across a range of fronts—such as top-level design, fiscal and tax incentives, financial support, demonstration applications, and talent cultivation—to foster the growth of domestically branded robotic systems. The supporting policies have become increasingly comprehensive and finely tailored. Meanwhile, work on China’s Robotics Industry Roadmap and the 13th Five-Year Plan for the robotics sector is progressing steadily. These efforts will provide significant impetus for Chinese robotics firms to overcome technological bottlenecks and enhance their industrialization capabilities.

　　At present, for China’s robotics industry, the question is no longer whether to prioritize it or not; rather, it is how we should view this industry and what mindset we should adopt to foster its orderly development. With regard to various aspects such as market demand, innovation models, and funding mechanisms, local governments are expected to refine their support policies for the industry.

　　III. Accelerate the R&D and production of next-generation robots to seize the next strategic high ground in robotics technology and industrial development.

　　With the advancement of robotics, robots are classified into general-purpose robots and intelligent robots based on their functional capabilities. General-purpose robots are those equipped only with basic programming and operational functions; currently, the majority of robots manufactured in China fall into this category. As for intelligent robots, there is no universally accepted definition; however, most experts agree that such robots must possess at least the following key functional characteristics: first, the ability to adapt to uncertain operating conditions; second, the capability to perform flexible manipulation of complex objects; third, the capacity for close coordination and collaboration with humans; fourth, the ability to engage in natural human–robot interaction; and fifth, safety features that ensure secure human–robot cooperation. Whether they are modern industrial robots or service robots, all will ultimately evolve into intelligent robots with learning capabilities. Intelligent robots are often referred to as the next-generation robots. With continuous advancements in technologies such as 3D visual perception and cognition, force sensors, and their deep integration with next-generation information technologies—including the Industrial Internet, cloud computing, and big data—the level of intelligence in next-generation robots will further increase, their perceptual capabilities will be significantly enhanced, enabling them to undertake dynamic and complex tasks, achieve multi-robot collaboration, and work seamlessly alongside humans.

　　To further capture international markets and enhance the global competitiveness of their manufacturing sectors, major economic powers are eager to take the lead by formulating comprehensive development plans aimed at securing a first-mover advantage in advanced robotics technologies. Currently, the German government is implementing the “Industry 4.0” strategy, which seeks to build “smart factories” and enable “intelligent production,” with a key focus on human–machine and machine–machine interaction and collaboration. In 2013, the United States unveiled the “U.S. Robotics Roadmap,” which prioritizes breakthroughs in critical technologies such as highly adaptive and reconfigurable robotic assembly, dexterous humanoid manipulation, model-based integration and supply-chain design, autonomous navigation, perception in unstructured environments, education and training, and the intrinsic safety of human–robot collaboration. At the beginning of 2015, the Japanese government released the “New Japanese Robotics Strategy” and, within its five-year action plan, explicitly committed to “researching and developing technologies such as data terminalization, networking, and cloud computing for next-generation robots.” In recent years, the South Korean government has successively introduced a series of policies designed to foster the R&D and application of third-generation intelligent robots; for instance, the “Robotics Future Strategy Network 2022” announced in 2012 places particular emphasis on supporting Korean firms in entering international markets and seizing the initiative in the industrialization of intelligent robotics. Driven by the vigorous efforts of technological leaders such as the United States, Japan, and Europe, over the past five years there has been a steady stream of next-generation robot prototypes, demonstration applications, and even fully operational systems.

　　At present, China’s market for next-generation industrial robots has not yet fully matured; however, the R&D and stockpiling of strategically important common technologies are urgently needed. To develop the next-generation robotics industry, China should first focus on strengthening the technological foundation of the robotics sector, vigorously advance the industrialization of existing robotic systems, and accelerate the adoption and application of domestically branded robots in the domestic market. At the same time, new R&D models should be explored, with research institutions and enterprises encouraged to leverage their respective strengths. A national-level platform for cutting-edge, common-technology R&D and technology reserves in the field of next-generation industrial robots should be established through multi-stakeholder collaboration. Grounded in China’s national conditions and specific needs, this platform will drive breakthroughs in core next-generation robotic technologies, facilitate the development of prototype systems and commercial products, and promote industrialization, thereby enabling China to secure a leading position in the global next-generation robotics market. For robotic products intended for different application domains, distinct development strategies should be implemented: on the one hand, with enterprises at the core and supported by common-technology platforms, priority should be given to advancing next-generation industrial robots, aligning supply with demand, and capturing the commanding heights of development; on the other hand, guided by market needs and taking into account the characteristics of domestic demand, emphasis should be placed on developing service robots for healthcare, elderly care, and assistance for persons with disabilities, as well as specialized robots designed for operation in demanding or hazardous environments.